- Apr 23, 2021
- 5 min read

The First 74 Days of 2021: Miami Real Estate Market Report

THE ROAD AHEAD

For Real Estate, the impact of the pandemic will be felt long into the future.

The metrics, noted within this report, reveal a historically red-hot sales period.

For example, in Q1 2020, sales of single-family homes priced over $1 million represented 1 of every 12 homes sold in Miami-Dade County. For the first 2 1/2 months of 2021, 1 of every 5 homes sold were in excess of $1 million. Million-dollar-plus condo sales during the same period in 2020 represented 1 of every 17 sales, compared with 1 of every 9 sales during the first 2 1/2 months of this year.

This is not only good news for the residential real estate market, but also extremely positive for our overall economy -- as many of these high-end home buyers also represent the leadership of relocating companies, which are rapidly bringing higher-paying jobs to our communities.

ONE VIRUS. TWO IMPACTS.

With the vaccine deliveries rapidly moving within the population, we expect to soon see international travelers and second-home owners returning to South Florida and other key urban centers across the US. For almost five decades, our real estate has been a magnet for our international friends to establish part-time, and full-time, residences throughout our communities. The strengthening of the US dollar against most South American currencies since the recession of 2008, in addition to the economic setbacks and instability of some of the countries south of us over this past decade, have made it difficult for several of our former largest South American buying regions to purchase here.

While buyers from Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina comprised our top three international buying groups for several years, sales to residents of those regions have fallen dramatically.

These international groups are the ones who have shaped our community over the past 40 to 50 years, purchasing property in South Florida either as an investment, a pied-a-terre, or a little of both. Covid has certainly played a huge role over this past year in slowing sales to the international population, as well, but we are encouraged that buyers from international markets, particularly from South America, will return once the vaccine has reached greater numbers and the threat of COVID subsides. In the meantime, US domestic buyers motivated by COVID, and the ability to work remotely, will continue to be a significant factor in creating new demand for our housing of all types.

Areas in the Northeast, such as Connecticut, have seen a huge migration, from heavily populated urban centers like New York City and Boston, to more suburban and rural environments. With the daily commute seemingly a thing of the past, and workers having flexibility to work from home some of the time, the distance between home and work has been ‘extended’. A two- or two-and-a-halfhour commute into the city is doable if it only has to be done once per week.

In South Florida, with its lack of land, what we’ve experienced through the pandemic is a flight to single-family homes. This is true at all price points. For example, by mid-March 2021, the overall inventory of single-family homes under $1 million in Miami-Dade County had shrunk to 1.9 months of supply, versus 5.0 months of inventory at the same time in 2020, just before the pandemic. For the same periods, the months of supply for homes in excess of $1 million fell from 22.1 months to 5.1 months. A healthy market is 6-9 months of available inventory for properties priced under $1 million and 12-18 months for the million-dollar-plus markets.

The median sold price for a singlefamily home in Miami-Dade for the first 2 1/2 months 2020 was $373,000. For the same time period in 2021, the median price increased to $470,000. Dramatic increase of 26%.

The trend is slightly more compelling in Broward for the first 2 1/2 months of 2021. The supply of single-family homes under $1 million during this period was down to 1.1 months in 2021, compared with 3.3 months a year earlier. The supply for the over $1 million markets was 4.9 months in 2021 versus 15.2 months in 2020. The median sold price for all Broward prices in mid-March 2021 was $430,000, from $379,000 one year earlier, up 13.5%.

We will continue to see a great deal of interest in single-family homes throughout 2021 at all price points. The challenge will continue to be maintaining sufficient inventory to keep a check on double-digit elevating prices.

Condominium buyers are definitely back – in rapidly growing numbers. The volume of sales, particularly at the higher-end, has been extremely robust. The overall condominium market in Miami-Dade had 13.5 months of available inventory supply as of midMarch 2020. It was down to 7.6 months for the same period in 2021.

And nowhere is this more obvious than at the high-end, where condos priced at $3 million or more were in abundance as of mid-March 2020, with 71.4 months of available inventory -- six years of inventory! In the same period in 2021, that number was down to 16.2 months, and we expect to see continued decreases in inventory. An average of 41 condos priced in excess of $3 million were sold each month across Miami-Dade County during the first 2 ½ months of 2021, compared with an average of 11 sales per month during the prior year. Remember, too, that the COVID shutdown of our markets didn’t occur until the last half of March, 2020; therefore, the sales comparison during the first 2 ½ months of 2020 was not affected by COVID.

As we move into Q2 2021 and beyond, we anticipate increased activity related to the returning international traveler, coupled with a growing number of domestic buyers. South Florida has the most compelling offering of high-end condos anywhere in the world. When you compare product, value, and the intangibles of South Florida, such as weather and easy access of air travel, we are simply unmatched in this arena.

STEADY GROWTH FUELED BY NEW MARKETS

Buyers from various regions are making their way to South Florida.

It is no surprise that Florida hosts more visitors from New York than from any other state. We’ve long joked that Miami is New York’s sixth borough. What’s increasingly of interest to South Florida’s residential real estate market is the number of individuals buying homes here from throughout the south, southwest and even west coast, as in California.

This was already a trend prior to COVID. So, while the travel restrictions related to the pandemic brought international travel to a complete halt, we continued to see a trickle of buyers from other parts of the US making their way into our community.

The fact that the U.S. Census statistics reflect that Florida is growing at the rate of 661 ‘net’ new residents per day, while 16 of our country’s 50 states are losing population, is certainly no surprise to those within the real estate industry.

These trends are easily identifiable in the Internal Migrations Map, which is a section of this report.